Scientific publications

The main aim of the present study is to estimate the regional climate change and response of water ecosystems of largest lakes of Europe and the White Sea. This study includes analysis of long-term data from multi-year records of basic climatic parameters (air temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration, index of continentality, river runoff, etc.). Variability of the hydrological regime of individual rivers and lakes, as well as the study area at large related to the regional climate change is presented and discussed. As the result of statistical analysis of the climate, water balance and water level for the largest lakes of Europe (Ladoga and Onego) and the White Sea over the period 1880-2004, their noticeable changes were detected. It was found that time series of annual air temperature, precipitation and evapotranspiration over a 120-year period contain significant positive linear trends, and river runoff contains a negative trend for the given period. Considerable climate changes in the region in those years are manifest also in a shorter period of snow cover in the catchments and a longer ice-free period on the lakes. Potential changes (spatial and temporal) in the regional climate and hydrologic regime for the period 2010-2050 were estimated using the results of numerical experiments with the ECHAM4/OPYC3 model and for two IPCC scenarios of the global climate change.